The impact of policy uncertainty on entrepreneurial activity: a cross-country analysis

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), capturing the extent to which a national economy is characterized by uncertainty about future tax codes, monetary policy, and government spending on the rate of entrepreneurial activity, including necessity entrepreneurship and opportunity entrepreneurship. Applying the system Generalized Method of Moments methodology on panel data covering 26 countries over 19 years, we show that higher EPU is associated with increased rates of necessity entrepreneurship. The results are significant even after controlling for other macro-level indicators and alternate EPU specifications. The results also suggest a lower rate of necessity entrepreneurship in developed economies, which reflects the role of safety nets as a shield against sudden loss of livelihood. We find no significant relationship between EPU and opportunity entrepreneurship, suggesting that opportunity entrepreneurship is governed by a more complex combination of factors. Our study contributes to the literature on determinants of entrepreneurship and offers important recommendations for entrepreneurs and policymakers.

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