Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints

Julian di Giovanni · Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan · Álvaro F. Silva · Muhammed Ali Yıldırım

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on US inflation over the December 2019 to June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.

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References

2022Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis 2022Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

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2024An Analysis of Pandemic-Era Inflation in 11 Economies 2023The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison

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