Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Abstract

Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here we reveal the losses of 125 food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in 192 countries and territories using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying 108 shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of up to 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Whereas previous studies often treated products in isolation and did not account for product conversion during production, the present model considers the global propagation of local supply shocks along both production and trade relations, allowing for a comparison of different response strategies. Food production shocks arising from the Russia–Ukraine conflict are explored in a multilayer network model, demonstrating that direct and indirect effects on production, such as sunflower oil, maize and poultry, can be estimated.

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