Investigating the temporal differences among bike-sharing users through comparative analysis based on count, time series, and data mining models

Abstract

Bike-sharing services provide easy access to environmentally-friendly mobility reducing congestion in urban areas. Increasing demand requires highly service planning methods based on bike-sharing user behavior. Negative Binomial, Poisson Regression, and Time Series models were elaborated considering the weather to reveal the differences between the members, occasional users, and visitor bike-sharing user groups. The negative Binomial approach is found to be superior to Poisson. Weather effects were varied in their influence on bike-sharing user classifications. In general, good weather conditions lead to more usage of bike-sharing. Weekends attract more occasional users and visitors than weekdays. In time series models, the seasonal trend of bike-sharing trips conducted by members was predicted without weather impact. According to the comparison, Random Forest performed better than SARIMA when the number of observations was low. Visitors are more influenced by temperature, wind and type of day. Occasional users are more subjected to precipitation. For members, it is found that the temperature, type of day are the most significant factors. The least factors for all are varied as well: precipitation for visitors, humidity for occasional users, precipitation and wind for members. The results help decision-makers predict the daily usage of bike-sharing for various user groups.

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