A new model to optimize the human reliability based on CREAM and group decision making

Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi · Azam Modares · Pardis Roozkhosh

24 citations0/0 files storedQuality and Reliability Engineering International

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Risk and Safety Analysis Reliability and Maintenance Optimization Human-Automation Interaction and Safety

Abstract

Abstract The Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) represents one of the second‐generation approaches to human reliability assessment, taking into account the influence of environmental conditions on human error probability (HEP). In the context of CREAM, the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) influence error probabilities. Since not all CPCs have equal impacts, this study employs the Bayesian Best Worst Method (BWM), a novel approach in group decision‐making, to assign weights to these factors. Subsequently, two techniques based on basic CREAM are proposed. The current control mode is determined in the first technique according to the experts' opinions. Then the probability of human error is calculated based on the amount of control. It is possible to provide solutions for improving control mode, based on obtained results. Therefore, in this study, the second method has been used to make suggestions to enhance human reliability. For this purpose, in the second technique, an optimization problem is formulated to select the best applicable programs for managers to enhance human reliability. The proposed bi‐objective model tries to increase the reliability of human resources by reducing human error and costs. The proposed bi‐objective model seeks to bolster the reliability of human resources by concurrently minimizing HEP and associated costs. The efficiency of the presented methods is verified through a case study in the control room of the cement factory. The results of the first technique reveal an opportunistic control mode with a corresponding HEP of 0.0198. On the other hand, the outcomes of our proposed model underscore the greater impact of improving CPC levels in reducing the probability of human error. Ultimately, the practical programs derived from our mathematical model provide decision‐makers with valuable insights to reduce the probability of human error to a mere 0.000172 through the transition from opportunistic to strategic control.

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References

2014Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method 1998Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM)2019Bayesian best-worst method: A probabilistic group decision making model 2005A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis 2007A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application 2018A fuzzy and Bayesian network CREAM model for human reliability analysis – The case of tanker shipping 1991Human factors in large-scale technological systems' accidents: Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Chernobyl 2019Evaluation of human error contribution to oil tanker collision using fault tree analysis and modified fuzzy Bayesian Network based CREAM

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2024Human reliability analysis of offshore high integrity pressure protection system based on improved CREAM and HCR integration method 2024Identifying Critical Factors Affecting Human Error Probability in Power Plant Operations and Their Sustainability Implications

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