A Real Application of the Multistage One-shot Decision-making Approach: A Museum Renewal Decision

Abstract

Traditional models for decision-making under uncertainty, primarily rooted in the expected utility theory, often fail to address the unique nature of one-time decisions. However, salience knowledge has been highlighted as a significant factor in human decision-making according to recent research. Diverging from conventional lottery-based methods, the Multistage One-Shot Decision-Making Approach (MOSDMA) proposes a unique scenario-based approach to multistage decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, the application of MOSDMA to a distinctive one-time museum investment problem within the public sector in Oman is explored, thereby evaluating its practical efficiency. It is the first application of this innovative approach to a current issue, rather than reevaluating previously addressed decision problems that have been done before. The results underscore the effectiveness and simplicity of MOSDMA in a new decision-making process, underlining the need for further exploration of this method in future research.

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