Exploring the Commuting Decision-Making Behavior of Low-Income Groups Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Abstract

Based on cumulative prospect theory, this study proposes a decision-making model to reveal the commuting behavior of low-income groups under uncertain conditions. Considering the commuting characteristics of this group, travel economic cost is incorporated into the model. The decision-making behavior of low-income groups under different travel scenarios is analyzed to acquire the priority of commuting plans. Based on a stated preference survey of residents in Beijing, the commuting behavior of low-income groups is empirically analyzed. The results show that low-income groups will be affected by individual risk preference and characterized by bounded rational characteristics when making commuting decisions under uncertain conditions. Moreover, travel economic cost is a crucial factor for the decision-making of this group. When the travel budget time is less than the perceived time, they tend to seek risks and take punctual arrival as their primary goal. On the contrary, they tend to avoid risks. On the basis of ensuring the travel time meets their needs, low-income commuters always seek the economy and reliability of their travel plans. The empirical results further verify that the proposed model effectively describes the commuting decision-making behavior of low-income groups, and it is superior to the expected utility theory with respect to performance and behavior disclosure. This study provides a reference for improving the commuting efficiency and experience of low-income groups.

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