Systemic transformation, political reforms and car ownership in Poland

Abstract

While highly developed countries experience some stabilisation in motorisation levels, emerging and developing economies have been facing unprecedented growth in car ownership. Poland is one such state in which car ownership has more than quadrupled over the last 30 years due to political and economic changes resulting from the systemic transformation. This article aims 1) to reconstruct the car ownership changes in Poland resulting from the systemic transformation and political reforms and 2) verify the influence of the selected factors on car ownership in 2005 and 2019. Using unique data from the Central Vehicle Register containing entries for >20 million cars registered in 2478 communes and applying spatial econometric models, the study reveals the impact of traditionally analysed factors, such as population density, income, housing type and public transport. In addition, the article verifies the importance of used car imports, an often-overlooked determinant in the literature and, at the same time, the primary driver of car ownership in many emerging and developing economies.

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