A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities: Implications for sustainable urban futures

Jianying Wang · Mei‐Po Kwan · Gezhi Xiu · Fangxu Deng

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Urban Transport and Accessibility Urban Design and Spatial Analysis Facility Location and Emergency Management

Abstract

The ‘15-minute city’ (15minC) concept, which aspires to bring essential services within reach via a 15-minute walk for all residents, represents a pivotal paradigm shift in sustainable urban development. However, the achievability of this concept for different cities varies considerably across diverse population distributions, urban contexts, and development priorities. In this study, we propose a robust method for evaluating a city's 15minC potential — a city's capability to achieve widespread 15-minute accessibility while maintaining an optimal balance between resource efficiency and resident accessibility. We employ the Location Set Covering Problem optimization model to analyze the resources required to achieve full coverage of 15-minute accessibility and the knee point detection algorithm to assess a city's 15minC potential. Across 23 major Chinese cities, our method exhibits a sharp sensitivity to delineate distinct 15minC potentials. It reveals that cities’ current 15minC development level doesn't align with their inherent potential uniformly. Key determinants include how well current facility locations match population centers and the population density in remote areas. Further, reducing facility constructions by two-thirds has only a marginal impact on accessibility, emphasizing the need for tailored, data-driven planning in effective and sustainable urban development based on the distinct potentials of cities. Our approach prioritizes resource efficiency, minimizing the inefficient use of facilities that serve only a small portion of residents while maximizing the benefits of the 15minC and therefore has significant implications for a sustainable urban future.

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References

2021Introducing the “15-Minute City”: Sustainability, Resilience and Place Identity in Future Post-Pandemic Cities 202115-Minute City: Decomposing the New Urban Planning Eutopia 2019The 15-minute walkable neighborhoods: Measurement, social inequalities and implications for building healthy communities in urban China 2015Accessible accessibility research challenges 2022The x-minute city: Measuring the 10, 15, 20-minute city and an evaluation of its use for sustainable urban design 2022The ‘15-Minute City’ concept can shape a net-zero urban future 2022The 15-minute city for all? – Measuring individual and temporal variations in walking accessibility 2021The 20-minute city: An equity analysis of Liverpool City Region

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202515-minute city beyond the urban core: Lessons from the urban-suburban disparity in PCR accessibility within the X-minute framework 2025The 15-minute city concept: An operations research perspective and a research agenda 2026From proximity to equity: Rethinking X-minute-city policies for accessibility equity through a spatial optimization perspective

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