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Different methods elicit different belief distributions.
16 references·1 citing·51 second hop
Different methods elicit different belief distributions. (2024)Different methods elicit different belief…No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions (2022)No reason to expect large and…The effectiveness of nudging: A meta-analysis of choice architecture interventions across behavioral domains (2021)The effectiveness of nudging:…People Reject Algorithms in Uncertain Decision Domains Because They Have Diminishing Sensitivity to Forecasting Error (2020)People Reject Algorithms in U…An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (2016)An Overview of the Survey of …Lay understanding of probability distributions (2014)Lay understanding of probabil…Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study (2013)Overconfidence in Newsvendor …Choosing Outcomes versus Choosing Products: Consumer-Focused Retirement Investment Advice (2008)Choosing Outcomes versus Choo…When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals (2005)When 90% confidence intervals…Overconfidence in Interval Estimates. (2004)Overconfidence in Interval Es…Measuring Expectations (2004)Measuring ExpectationsOverconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask (1999)Overconfidence: It Depends on…Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. (1999)Format dependence in subjecti…Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters (1993)Introducing: The Survey of Pr…Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others (1993)Choosing versus rejecting: Wh…Contingent weighting in judgment and choice. (1988)Contingent weighting in judgm…The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)The Framing of Decisions and …Understanding People’s Preferences for Predictions: People Prioritize Being Right over Minimizing How Wrong They Are in Expectation (2025)Understanding People’s Prefer…Statistical principles in experimental design. 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References

  • 1981The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice17,834 cited
  • 1988Contingent weighting in judgment and choice.1,585 cited
  • 2004Measuring Expectations1,433 cited
  • 1999Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask786 cited
  • 2021The effectiveness of nudging: A meta-analysis of choice architecture interventions across behavioral domains746 cited
  • 1993Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others572 cited
  • 2004Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.508 cited
  • 1993Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters289 cited
  • 2020People Reject Algorithms in Uncertain Decision Domains Because They Have Diminishing Sensitivity to Forecasting Error275 cited
  • 2013Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study267 cited
  • 1999Format dependence in subjective probability calibration.177 cited
  • 2008Choosing Outcomes versus Choosing Products: Consumer-Focused Retirement Investment Advice174 cited
  • 2005When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals167 cited
  • 2022No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions145 cited
  • 2016An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations

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126 cited
  • 2014Lay understanding of probability distributions116 cited
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    • 2025Understanding People’s Preferences for Predictions: People Prioritize Being Right over Minimizing How Wrong They Are in Expectation3 cited