Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics

Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi · Mostafa Kazemi · Alireza Pooya · Mahdi Doostparast

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Risk and Safety Analysis Reliability and Maintenance Optimization Occupational Health and Safety Research

Abstract

Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.

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References

1998Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM)2001Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents: application of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification system (HFACS).1996The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques — THERP, HEART and JHEDI: Part 1 — technique descriptions and validation issues 2014Identification of Flexible Manufacturing System Dimensions and Their Interrelationship Using Total Interpretive Structural Modelling and Fuzzy MICMAC Analysis 2007A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application 1990Impact of indirect relationships in classification of variables—a micmac analysis for energy conservation 1991Human factors in large-scale technological systems' accidents: Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Chernobyl 2020System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions

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