Risks for the Development of the Russian Human Capital in the Context of Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions, increasing sanction pressure, inequality, and the slowdown of globalization serve as signals of fragmentation in the world economy. However, research on the social consequences of fragmentation remains limited. This study aims to identify the risks to the development of the Russian human capital in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation. Research methods include a systematic literature review and a comparative analysis of the country blocks based on the key indicators of technology development and human capital using World Bank data from 2011 to 2022. Based on political preferences and the level of socio-economic development, Western, Eastern, and Neutral blocks were identified and analyzed among 149 advanced and emerging economies. The results showed significant differences among the blocks in the level of human capital development and indicators of technological development. Russia has advantages in formal education at the level of Western block countries; however, health indicators of the population and the share of investment in science and education remain relatively low. Key risks in the context of fragmentation include further devaluation of human capital, losses associated with migration and health capital, a decrease in the share of high-tech sectors in the structure of value-added, and the proportion of scientific personnel

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