Effect Size Magnification: No Variable Is as Important as the One You’re Thinking About—While You’re Thinking About It

Abstract

The goal of psychological science is to discover truths about human nature, and the typical form of empirical insights is a simple statement of the form x relates to y. We suggest that such “one-liners” imply much larger x- y relationships than those we typically study. Given the multitude of factors that compete and interact to influence any human outcome, small effect sizes should not surprise us. And yet they do—as evidenced by the persistent and systematic underpowering of research studies in psychological science. We suggest an explanation. Effect size magnification is the tendency to exaggerate the importance of the variable under investigation because of the momentary neglect of others. Although problematic, this attentional focus serves a purpose akin to that of the eye’s fovea. We see a particular x-y relationship with greater acuity when it is the center of our attention. Debiasing remedies are not straightforward, but we recommend (a) recalibrating expectations about the effect sizes we study, (b) proactively exploring moderators and boundary conditions, and (c) periodically toggling our focus from the x variable we happen to study to the non- x variables we do not.

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