Modelling post-earthquake building recovery under human resource constraints

Abstract

Demand surge phenomenon as a result of shortages of human resources needed for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction can be detrimental to recovery outcomes. To quantify the impact of human resource constraints on the recovery of an urban environment, this research introduces a novel Dynamic Stochastic Queuing (DSQ) model, revealing such dynamic interplays over time. Central to this model is the incorporation of a spectrum of socioeconomic factors to formulate optimal recovery strategies under different dynamic resource mobilisation patterns. A recovery efficiency index is defined and employed as a proxy to facilitate comparisons across diverse recovery strategies. A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the model by simulating the building recovery of a portfolio of residential buildings in New Zealand following the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The findings indicate that proactive resource mobilisation strategies can significantly enhance both recovery efficiency and speed. It becomes possible to shorten the post-disaster recovery time significantly by strategically sequencing repairs of damaged structures while taking into account resource mobilisation strategies.

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