Seeds of Hope: Cross-National Analysis of Childhood Predictors of Hope in 22 Countries

Abstract

This study investigates childhood predictors of adult hope across 22 countries, leveraging data from 202,898 participants in the Global Flourishing Study. Key findings indicate that positive childhood experiences, such as excellent or very good health, supportive parental relationships, and regular religious attendance, are strongly associated with higher levels of hope in adulthood. Conversely, negative experiences like abuse and feeling like an outsider during childhood are linked to lower levels of hope. In many countries, excellent self-rated health during childhood emerged as a strong predictor of future hope (β = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.31, 0.65), whereas experiences of abuse correlated with lower hope levels (β = -0.16, 95% CI: -0.22, -0.10). The association between attending religious services during childhood and future hope showed notable variation in effect sizes across countries, with weekly childhood attendance in Sweden demonstrating a significant increase in hope (β = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.54) on weekly attendance, while Indonesia also showed a significant but smaller increase (β = 0.18, 95% CI: -0.04, 0.40), with Argentina showing essentially no association (β = 0.03, 95% CI: -0.13, 0.20). The impact of parental relationships varied, with notable differences observed in countries like Germany and India. These associations were robust to potential confounding, as indicated by sensitivity analyses using E-values. This cross-national study underscores the potential role of early life experiences in shaping hope, offering valuable benchmarks for future research and interventions aimed at fostering hope from a young age in diverse cultural contexts. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11482-025-10450-0.

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