How can we maximize the environmental benefits of teleworking? — A simulation and global sensitivity analysis of English teleworkers

Abstract

With the increasing popularity of teleworking after the pandemic and the threat of climate change, there is growing interest in the potential of teleworking to reduce carbon emissions from transport. However, few studies have quantified the impact of teleworking on carbon emissions, and none have explored the sensitivity of emissions to relevant variables. This study simulates the difference in travel-related carbon emissions between teleworkers and non-teleworkers with the English National Travel Survey (NTS) from year 2017 to 2019, then conducts a global sensitivity analysis to identify the most important variables. We find that high-frequency teleworkers (3-5 times/week) have lower transport carbon emissions, but low-frequency teleworkers (1-2 times/week) are the opposite. The key variables influencing travel-related emissions are one-way commute distance, one-way non-commute distance and the number of non-commute trips. These results highlight the importance of preventing ‘tele-sprawl’ where teleworking encourages people to relocate to rural areas.

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