The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

Abstract

The relationship between attendance at major league baseball games and the uncertainty of the outcome of each game is examined. We use an a priori measure of uncertainty in estimating the attendance equation. The variable is developed from the betting lines for individual games and measures the probability of a home team victory during the 1988 major league baseball season. The results indicate that uncertainty of outcome is a significant determinant of attendance for major league baseball. In addition, the results are used to determine the probability of a home team victory at which attendance will be maximized.

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