Spatial and Temporal Transferability of Trip Generation Demand Models in Israel

Abstract

This research investigates the transferability of person-level disaggregate trip generation models (TGMs) in time and space using two model specifications: multinomial linear regression and Tobit. The models are estimated for the Tel Aviv and Haifa metropolitan areas based on data from the 1984 and 1996/97 Israeli National Travel Habits Surveys. The paper emphasizes that Tobit models perform better than regression or discrete choice models in estimating nontravelers. Furthermore, the paper notes that variables and file structures in household surveys need to be consistent. Results of the study show that the estimated regression and Tobit disaggregate person-level TGMs are statistically different in space and in time. In spite of the transferred forecasts, the aggregate forecasts were also similar.

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