Decoupling freight transport from GDP - conditions for a 'regime shift'

Abstract

Until recently, the volume of road freight transport has been expected to follow the growth of GDP and any policy aimed at curbing freight demand has been thought deleterious to economic development. However, recent studies indicate a ‘relative decoupling’ in some European countries, including the UK. These figures may be misleading, since they fail to take into account the increasing proportion of foreign haulers in the UK, and the increasing volume of imports in many industrial sectors. Moreover, a far more drastic system change – a transformation of the oil-dependent ‘socio-technical regime’ – will be needed to achieve the UK government’s goal of 60% reduction in CO2-emissions by 2050. This paper first presents key trends in the UK road freight in the past two decades, looking specifically at a number of ‘key ratios’ that explain the observed growth in road freight activity. It then sets these trends into a context, by analysing the evolution of the UK road freight system as a ‘socio-technical regime’ and the potential of stimulating a regime transformation that would be needed to reduce the environmental burden from road freight transport. The changes in the trends measuring road freight sector’s environmental performance may be a sign of changes in the ‘transition context’, with the potential of bringing about a genuine regime shift. To identify the governance measures with the potential of breaking the institutional inertia a better understanding is needed of the respective roles of key actors, and their situation along the different dimensions of power.

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