Reliability Assessment of Urban Rail Transit Networks: Methodology and Case Study

Abstract

Assessments of transit service networks is usually based on a deterministic point of view by assuming that all components of the system perform as planned. In reality however, a large number of regular and irregular variations influences transit services such as variations in service operation, and infrastructure availability. The question is how these phenomena might be taken into account in the transit network assessment. All kinds of events might block infrastructure and thus hamper transit services, and might affect transit services directly as well. As a result transit operators adapt their service network by introducing detours, implementing partial services or even skipping runs. For rail transit networks this requires extra attention, as infrastructure is limitedly available. Furthermore, travelers might experience extra travel time or they might not be able to make their trip by transit at all. An assessment model is presented that accounts for these mechanisms. A case study for the tram network of The Hague demonstrated that the consequences of events such as bad weather, road works and incidents are quite substantial. Different options for improving transit service reliability are analyzed such as changing the service network configuration or adding infrastructure for facilitating detours or partial services. Results show that providing additional infrastructure improves transit service reliability and even leads to a better overall transit network performance.

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