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This paper estimates a translog travel demand system, which is capable of giving a quadratic approximation of the time-/season-/work-hourvarying preferences for consumers, from a monthly time-series data of the Dutch passenger travel modes: automobile, passenger rail, and bus, tram and metro (BTM) modes. The demand model is used to compute the elasticities of demand for each travel mode with respect to its own price, prices of other modes, and income. Finally, the estimated demand model is used to predict the changes in the demands for different modes of transportation under alternative pricing policies which would prevail as the society moves closer to the goal of sustainable development. Our results show: (a) the price elasticity for automobile mode is the lowest of all (*) Final version: May 1995. This paper is developed from a research conducted for the Project Bureau for Integrated Transport Studies, The Netherlands Ministry of Transport and Public Works. (**) Tae H. Oum is Van Dusen Foundation Professor of Management, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of British Columbia, Canada, and Harry van Ooststroom is with the Central Development Group, Netherlands Railways Ltd (NS) and was with the Project Bureau for Integrated Transport Studies, The Netherlands Ministry of Transport and Public Works at the time of this research. J. H. Yoon was Research Associate at UBC. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.162 on Thu, 11 Aug 2016 05:36:55 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 32 T.H. Oum H.P.C. Van Ooststroom J.H. Yoon modes and approaches zero over time; (b) the price elasticity of demand for the BTM mode is consistently lower than the passenger rail mode; (c) passenger rail is the only mode whose price elasticity is greater than 1.0; (d) demand for rail and BTM modes are mutually complementary; and (e) the demand for automobile use is generally insensitive to price changes of its own or other modes while it is sensitive to real income. These findings lead us to conclude that, unless there is a drastic increase in the price of using a private car relative to the public transport modes, it is difficult to induce travellers to public transport modes especially when real per-capita income is expected to increase. Our simulation results confirm this finding: e.g., a 50% increase in the real cost of driving a car relative to the costs of using public transport modes is expected to reduce the auto mode share by 6.4% only. It is expected that most people will switch to the rail mode rather than to the BTM mode.
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