ESTIMATION OF SUB-MODAL SPLIT WITHIN THE TRANSIT MODE

Abstract

RIDERS DIVERTED FROM SURFACE TRANSIT COMPRISE THE BULK OF PATRONS ON NEW CENTRAL-CITY RAPID TRANSIT LINES. EFFECTIVE ESTIMATION OF SUBMODAL SPLIT IS OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO RAPID TRANSIT PATRONAGE FORECASTING. THE ESTIMATION OF SUBMODAL SPLIT FOR THE NATIONAL CAPITAL TRANSPORTATION AGENCYS INITIAL SUBWAY SYSTEM IS DESCRIBED. DATA FROM SKOKIE, ILLINOIS MASS TRANSPORTATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT A LOGISTICS CURVE SUBMODAL SPLIT RELATIONSHIP WHICH COMPARED SATISFACTORILY WITH PREVIOUS DATA. WEIGHTED EXCESS TIMES WERE INTRODUCED TO REPRESENT TRAVEL CONVENIENCE IN CURVE DERIVATION AND IN TRANSIT COMPUTER NETWORK CODING. OVERALL ALTERNATE TRAVEL TIMES WITH EXCESS TIME WEIGHTING OF 2.5 APPEARED TO BE SUFFICIENT INPUT TO PREDICT SUBMODAL SPLIT ADEQUATELY. ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED A COMBINATION OF SPECIAL COMPUTER PROGRAMS AND STANDARD TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT PROGRAMS TO COMPUTE SUBMODAL SPLIT FOR A 580 TRAFFIC ZONE SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT DIVERSION ANALYSIS WAS FOUND VERY SENSITIVE TO THE ASSUMED RAPID AND SURFACE TRANSIT ROUTINGS AND HEADWAYS. RESULTS INDICATED USE OF ALL- OR-NOTHING ASSIGNMENT FOR DIVERSION COMPUTATION WOULD NOT HAVE PROVIDED THE ACCURACY REQUIRED FOR THE NCTA STUDY. /AUTHOR/

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