DO STATE REVENUE FORECASTERS UTILIZE AVAILABLE INFORMATION?

William M. Gentry

56 citations0/0 files storedNational Tax Journal

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Forecasting Techniques and Applications Economic and Fiscal Studies Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

Abstract

This paper tests whether state revenue forecasts incorporate all possible economic and political information. We formally define the concept of rationality and then test it on time series data on New Jersey's major revenue sources. The results show that for most revenue sources, forecasts have a downward bias and do not fully utilize the information available to the forecaster. Some evidence shows that the size of this bias is positively related to the uncertainty of the revenue source.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 56 citations exist upstream.

References

1987Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications 1981What do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations

Cited by

2008Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges*1992Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts 2013Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.