Key factors affecting journey to work in Melbourne using geographically weighted regression

Abstract

This paper aims to explore factors affecting private car use for journey to work in Melbourne using a multiple regression analysis and an analysis of the spatial strength of explanatory variables using a geographically weighted regression analysis (GWR). A review of previous research suggests that car ownership, access to transit, distance from the CBD, CBD employee share, and to some extent urban residential and employment density are major factors affecting private vehicle mode share for commuting. There is some variation in specific factors explored and the degree to which each is of influence suggesting that local conditions in each city or study area have an influence in why people chose driving for JTW. The multiple regression analysis explained 57 per cent of the variance of car use for travel to work in Melbourne. In general these findings are much in line with previous research. GWR increased the explanatory power of the analysis from 57 to 74 per cent of variance and enabled spatial patterns of the three major explanatory variables to be explored. Public transport supply was found to be particularly strong at influencing private vehicle commuter in inner and south western parts of Melbourne. Distance to the city was stronger in inner and northern parts of Melbourne. Residential density was strongest in eastern and outer areas.

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