Advances in Regional Demography: Information, Forecasts, Models.

Abstract

This book investigates recent issues in spatial demography and explores potential new directions for research. 1 object is to set regional demography in the broader explanatory context of regional science for example by exploring economic-demographic interactions and by assessing their implications for spatial population redistribution and for the parameters describing such redistributions. Another and related intention is to assess the contribution of demographic research and information to the formation of spatial policy an interplay which ideally should be symbiotic. Single-region or nation demography has been primarily concerned with the evolution and projection of fertility and mortality patterns with perhaps an allowance for pet migration. However the recognition of demographic interactions between regions and of the processes underlying them has implications for describing the evolution of populations for analyzing population structures and for demographic projections. Migration between regions is the main force underlying the population redistributions which accompany urban transition. The major phase in the counterurbanization in the 1970s has been attributed to both the surge of household formation associated with the coming of age of the large post-war birth cohorts and to the growth and increased migratory potential of the retirement age cohorts. Analysis of spatial population structure and the mechanisms of redistribution takes account both of the wider frame of events or stages in household and career development at micro-level and of macro-level differences between and within regions in the availability and structure of employment and housing. In the projection context a multi-regional life table incorporating regional survivorship and out-migration probabilities has been developed as 1 basis for a multi-regional population projection matrix. The multi-regional approach focuses on the interdependent populations of different regions and associates gross flows between these populations with the appropriate populations at risk. The multi-regional population process involves multiplication of the multi-regional population by a growth matrix which allows for increments through both births and immigration and for decrements through death and emigration. Recent work on such projections has modified the underlying assumptions of the multi-regional matrix approach.

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