The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited

Abstract

Since the seminal contributions of Raúl Prebisch (1950) and Hans Singer (1950) on the tendency of the terms of trade of developing countries with developed countries to deteriorate over the long term, the ensuing debate on this issue has focused, until quite recently, on the evidence provided by the relative movements in the price of non-oil commodities and the unit value of manufactures exported by the developed countries. This was understandable and, indeed, entirely relevant since the greater part of the merchandise trade between these two groups of countries before the oil price increases of the 1970s had consisted of a ‘vertical’ exchange of non-oil primary commodities from developing countries for manufactured goods from developed countries. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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