Exploring city-level climate risks for immovable cultural heritage in Beijing

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly threatening immovable cultural heritage. This study develops a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate risks across 3619 immovable cultural heritage sites in Beijing. The results show that mean risk under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) is approximately 41.5% higher than under the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). Climate risks generally decline from national to municipal, district, and district surveyed heritage; yet lower level heritage categories are more vulnerable and exhibit a significantly greater risk increase when shifting from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5. Spatially, high risk areas concentrate primarily in central urban districts and the western mountainous regions. The relative risk gradient remains robust despite uncertainty. Based on these findings, this study highlights three policy implications for adapting cultural heritage to climate change: strengthening greenhouse gas mitigation to reduce climate hazards; developing proactive adaptation plans to reduce vulnerability; and implementing differentiated measures to address resource constraints.

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