Integrating Climate Risk in Cultural Heritage: A Critical Review of Assessment Frameworks

Abstract

Climate change poses an escalating threat to cultural heritage (CH), driven by intensifying climate-related hazards and systemic vulnerabilities. In response, risk assessment frameworks and methodologies (RAFMs) have emerged to evaluate and guide adaptation strategies for safeguarding heritage assets. This study conducts a state-of-the-art (SotA) review of 86 unique RAFMs using a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA)-guided systematic approach to assess their scope, methodological rigor, alignment with global climate and disaster risk reduction (DRR) frameworks, and consistency in conceptual definitions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Results reveal a growing integration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-based climate projections and alignment with international policy instruments such as the Sendai Framework and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). However, notable gaps persist, including definitional inconsistencies, particularly in the misapplication of vulnerability concepts; fragmented and case-specific methodologies that challenge comparability; and limited integration of intangible heritage. Best practices include participatory stakeholder engagement, scenario-based modeling, and incorporation of multi-scale risk typologies. This review advocates for more standardized, interdisciplinary, and policy-aligned frameworks that enable scalable, culturally sensitive, and action-oriented risk assessments, ultimately strengthening the resilience of cultural heritage in a changing climate.

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