Robotisation of the National Economy: Economic Effects

Abstract

Against a backdrop of intensifying global technological competition and sanctions pressure, the issue of the robotisation of the national economy has become of critical importance for Russia. The objective of this article is to develop a macroeconomic model allowing for the assessment of the impact of robotisation in the manufacturing sector on aggregate labour productivity (LP), as well as to obtain quantitative estimates of the necessary investment resources, their returns, and the consequences for the labour market. The methodology is based on the construction of a nonlinear regression model using panel data for 20 countries over the period 2015–2023, drawing on statistics from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), the World Bank, and the International Labour Organisation (ILOSTAT). The scientific novelty of the approach stems in the use of aggregated, cross-country data to indirectly assess the macroeconomic consequences of robotisation, as well as in the introduction of the concept of a “technological frontier” (saturation point), beyond which the returns from production automation decline. As a result , the study determines the upper limit of robotisation density and calculates productivity growth potential for the US, China and Russia. It has been demonstrated that, despite its modest macroeconomic impact (productivity growth in the Russian Federation is estimated at 53%), robotisation offers exceptionally high returns and enables Russia to strategically narrow the productivity gap with the US to 1.3 times. The article debunks the myth of ‘technological optimism’, without downplaying the fact that mass automation is not only economically justified but also essential for the nation to shift its technological status from that of an innovation recipient to that of an innovation donor.

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