Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Abstract

Chapter 5 provides an overview of past and expected future trends in life expectancy in populations of today’s low mortality countries. Because these populations previously experienced strong decreases in infant mortality, the future mortality trends will be driven mainly by mortality among the old and oldest-old. The chapter gathers empirical background data and theoretical considerations about past and likely future determinants of mortality, including smoking, obesity, biomedical progress, environmental changes, and socio-economic conditions. Based on this knowledge, an Internet expert survey and an invited experts meeting were carried out to formulate expert-based assumptions for future trends in life expectancy. The presented evidence and substantive arguments indicate that the positive influences on human life expectancy will likely outweigh the negative risk factors, leading to further increases in life expectancy. Moreover, the chapter concludes that the differences in life expectancy between countries are likely to narrow further in the future.

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