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A New Short-Term County Population Projection Method

46 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Economic and Social Measurement

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications Census and Population Estimation

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for short-term county population projections. It is based on a modification of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modified ratio-correlation method can produce projections with a high potential for accuracy without requiring substantial data and intensive intellectual labor inputs. Tests of accuracy are examined for the modified ratio-correlation method and two currently available alternatives using data from Washington state. The tests suggest that the new method performs well. Advantages of the modified ratio-correlation method are discussed, with particular attention given to the formal measurement of uncertainty. Forecast intervals are constructed and examined for the projections constructed for counties in Washington state. Given certain limitations, the forecast intervals appear to be robust in terms of providing accurate assessments of the precision associated with county population projections made using the modified ratio-correlation method.

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References

1981The Limits of Population Forecasting 1983The Accuracy of Population Projections 1990The effect of choosing on confidence in choice 1977The Accuracy of Population Projections for Subcounty Areas 1976Projecting state and local populations

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