Mispredicting Utility and the Political Process

Abstract

In important situations, individual decision-making is systematically biased. When deciding (rather than consuming), extrinsic attributes of choice options are more salient than intrinsic attributes. People overestimate extrinsic attributes and therefore put too much effort into acquiring income and gaining status, lowering their utility level. These mistakes are accentuated in authoritarian systems and at least carried forward in a perfectly competitive democratic system of party competition. In modern democracies, public discourse puts people's partial awareness of their anomalous behavior on the political agenda. Various policies can help people to overcome biases due to misprediction.

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