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Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity
11 references·2 citing·48 second hop
Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity (2015)Modeling Probability Forecasts via Inform…Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme (2014)Two Reasons to Make Aggregate…Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2014)Psychological Strategies for …Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model (2014)Combining multiple probabilit…The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions (2012)The Good Judgment Project: A …Subjective recalibration of advisors' probability estimates (2010)Subjective recalibration of a…Combining Probability Forecasts (2010)Combining Probability Forecas…Interpreted and generated signals (2009)Interpreted and generated sig…Combining Forecasts (2001)Combining ForecastsCoherent combination of experts' opinions (1995)Coherent combination of exper…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…Subjectively weighted utility: A descriptive extension of the expected utility model (1978)Subjectively weighted utility…Generic Conditions for Forecast Dominance (2020)Generic Conditions for Foreca…Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting (2020)Bias, Information, Noise: The…The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk (1948)Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine (1953)Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (1954)Translation of Gambles and Aspiration Level Effects in Risky Choice Behavior (1980)SOURCES OF BIAS IN ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES FOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS (1988)Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights (1990)A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding (1982)The geography of thought : how Asians and Westerners think differently--and why (2003)Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers (2004)Changes in the Representation of Women and Minorities in Biomedical Careers (2012)Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and Why It Matters (2012)Group Polarization in a Model of Information Aggregation (2015)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)Social Choice and Individual Values. (1951)A Treatise on Probability (1973)Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters (2007)Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem (2013)Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting (2019)Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness (2007)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)Combining predictive distributions (2013)Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls (2016)Human-AI Ensembles: When Can They Work? (2023)Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Forecasting Tournaments (2014)Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition (2016)Groups: Interaction and Performance. (1984)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)The difference: how the power of diversity creates better groups, firms, schools, and societies (2007)The wisdom of select crowds. (2014)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)The Bias of Crowds: How Implicit Bias Bridges Personal and Systemic Prejudice (2017)Judgment and decision making (1990)Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence (2014)Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science (2015)Microfoundations in international relations (2016)Construct validity in psychological tests. (1955)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)Corn cash price forecasting with neural networks (2021)Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review (2022)The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments (2018)Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications (2020)Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda (2021)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1978Subjectively weighted utility: A descriptive extension of the expected utility model350 cited
  • 2001Combining Forecasts349 cited
  • 2014Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament310 cited
  • 2010Combining Probability Forecasts227 cited
  • 2014Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model148 cited
  • 2014Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme130 cited
  • 1995Coherent combination of experts' opinions87 cited
  • 2012The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions74 cited
  • 2009Interpreted and generated signals65 cited
  • 2010Subjective recalibration of advisors' probability estimates16 cited

Cited by

  • 2020Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting57 cited
  • 2020Generic Conditions for Forecast Dominance43 cited

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