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Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls
16 references·2 citing·44 second hop
Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls (2011)Forecasting elections with mere recogniti…Handbook of Economic Forecasting (2013)Handbook of Economic Forecast…Ecological RationalityIntelligence in the World (2012)Ecological RationalityIntelli…Heuristic Decision Making (2010)Heuristic Decision MakingHomo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences (2009)Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased …Gut feelings: the intelligence of the unconscious (2008)Gut feelings: the intelligenc…Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations (2006)Chapter 4 Forecast Combinatio…Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes (2005)Inferences of Competence from…Prediction Markets (2004)Prediction MarketsModels of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)Models of ecological rational…Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. (1996)Reasoning the fast and frugal…The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. (1992)The Reasoning Voter: Communic…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1990)Combining forecasts: A review…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…Attitudinal effects of mere exposure. (1968)Attitudinal effects of mere e…Vox Populi (1907)Vox PopuliInferring Others' Hidden Thoughts: Smart Guesses in a Low Diagnostic World (2015)Inferring Others' Hidden Thou…The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition (2011)The wisdom of ignorant crowds…The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (1992)Dual-process theories in social psychology (1999)A very brief measure of the Big-Five personality domains (2003)8 Social Hierarchy: The Self‐Reinforcing Nature of Power and Status (2008)Warmth and Competence as Universal Dimensions of Social Perception: The Stereotype Content Model and the BIAS Map (2008)The Essential Guide to Effect Sizes (2010)Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation (1979)Group versus individual performance: Are N + 1 heads better than one? (1982)Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1995)Principles of Forecasting (2001)Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model (2003)Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure (1966)Linear models in decision making. (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)A circumplex model of affect. (1980)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)A BEHAVIORAL MODEL OF RATIONAL CHOICE (1955)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Emotion and Decision Making (2014)Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA): Guidelines for research practice in Information Systems and marketing (2021)Two new Later Stone Age sites from the Final Pleistocene in the Falémé Valley, eastern Senegal (2024)The Principles of Psychology (1891)The Measurement of Meaning (1957)Social Behavior: Its Elementary Forms (1963)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: The implicit association test. (1998)A meta-analytic test of intergroup contact theory. (2006)The Evolution of Cooperation (1981)Moving beyond multiple regression analysis to algorithms: Calling for adoption of a paradigm shift from symmetric to asymmetric thinking in data analysis and crafting theory (2013)The expression of the emotions in man and animals. (1872)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (1999)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition (1982)Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations (1988)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections (1994)Unequal Participation: Democracy's Unresolved Dilemma Presidential Address, American Political Science Association, 1996 (1997)Framing as a Theory of Media Effects (1999)Heuristics made easy: An effort-reduction framework. (2008)Misinformation and Its Correction (2012)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1968Attitudinal effects of mere exposure.6,757 cited
  • 2010Heuristic Decision Making4,028 cited
  • 1996Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality.3,503 cited
  • 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography2,170 cited
  • 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1,969 cited
  • 2009Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences1,799 cited
  • 1992The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns.1,533 cited
  • 1990Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography1,508 cited
  • 2005Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes1,507 cited
  • 2002Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic.1,352 cited
  • 2006Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations1,318 cited
  • 2013Handbook of Economic Forecasting1,290 cited
  • 1907Vox Populi1,134 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets886 cited
  • 2012Ecological RationalityIntelligence in the World750 cited
  • 2008Gut feelings: the intelligence of the unconscious723 cited

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Cited by

  • 2011The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition48 cited
  • 2015Inferring Others' Hidden Thoughts: Smart Guesses in a Low Diagnostic World42 cited