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Intelligence: from secrets to policy
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Intelligence: from secrets to policy (2000)Intelligence: from secrets to policyThe Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2018)The Value of Precision in Pro…Media technology, covert action, and the politics of exposure (2017)Media technology, covert acti…Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals (2017)Behavioral Consequences of Pr…When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results (2016)When the Great Power Gets a V…How Quantifying Probability Assessments Influences Analysis and Decision Making: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals (2016)How Quantifying Probability A…The Need of Complex Competitive Intelligence (2014)The Need of Complex Competiti…In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries (2013)In the Eye of the Beholder: H…What's the Harm? The Ethics of Intelligence Collection (2012)What's the Harm? The Ethics o…Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict (2011)Real Time, Time Series Foreca…From the new institutional economics to organization economics: with applications to corporate governance, government agencies, and legal institutions (2010)From the new institutional ec…Intelligence for an Age of Terror (2009)Intelligence for an Age of Te…Information and Knowledge Management in Public Sector Networks: The Case of the US Intelligence Community (2009)Information and Knowledge Man…Beyond IQ: A Triarchic Theory of Human Intelligence (1986)EMPLOYEE CREATIVITY: PERSONAL AND CONTEXTUAL FACTORS AT WORK. (1996)Sensemaking in Organizations (1996)Competitive intelligence in UK firms: a typology (2002)Knowledge Management (2005)Intelligent Organizations Powerful Models for Systemic Management (2008)The Strategy of Conflict (1960)The Handbook of Social Psychology (1969)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The Illusion of International Prestige (2017)Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition (2020)Secrecy in International Relations and Foreign Policy (2021)The Nature of the Firm (1937)Transaction-Cost Economics: The Governance of Contractual Relations (1979)A Survey of Corporate Governance (1997)Social Theory and Social Structure. (1969)Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (1978)An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation (2017)Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management (1998)Evaluating Interval Forecasts (1998)Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness (2007)Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years (2015)Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations? (2017)Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text (2017)What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data (1995)New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions (2001)The tragedy of Great Power politics (2002)Clientelism in Competitive and Uncompetitive Elections (2017)Disinformation in International Politics (2018)Public Opinion and Foreign Electoral Intervention (2020)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Psychology Intelligence Analysis (1999)The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (2013)Political Psychology in International Relations: Beyond the Paradigms (2018)Experiments and Surveys on Political Elites (2022)Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes (1994)Expanded Trade and GDP Data (2002)Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War (2003)Credible Commitment in Covert Affairs (2018)Feigning Compliance: Covert Action and International Law (2019)The General Theory of Employment (1937)The need for cognition. (1982)From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science: Producing better probability estimates for policy makers. (2019)Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting (2020)Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures (2021)
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  • 2011Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict167 cited
  • 2013In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries118 cited
  • 2016When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results108 cited
  • 2017Media technology, covert action, and the politics of exposure83 cited
  • 2010From the new institutional economics to organization economics: with applications to corporate governance, government agencies, and legal institutions74 cited
  • 2009Intelligence for an Age of Terror64 cited
  • 2018The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament58 cited
  • 2012What's the Harm? The Ethics of Intelligence Collection57 cited
  • 2014The Need of Complex Competitive Intelligence46 cited
  • 2017Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals43 cited
  • 2009Information and Knowledge Management in Public Sector Networks: The Case of the US Intelligence Community29 cited
  • 2016How Quantifying Probability Assessments Influences Analysis and Decision Making: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals4 cited

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