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The psychology of moderate prediction
16 references·16 citing·33 second hopsampled
The psychology of moderate prediction (1991)The psychology of moderate predictionOrganizational behavior and human decision processes (1988)Organizational behavior and h…Negativity in evaluations. (1987)Negativity in evaluations.Attribution: Perceiving the Causes of Behavior (1987)Attribution: Perceiving the C…The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. (1983)The use of statistical heuris…Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty (1982)Causal schemas in judgments u…The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person (1980)The effects of base rates and…Subjective sensitivity analysis (1979)Subjective sensitivity analys…Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. (1977)Intuitive theories of events …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…The processes of causal attribution. (1973)The processes of causal attri…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Subjective probability: A jud…The pollyanna hypothesis (1969)The pollyanna hypothesisAveraging versus adding as a stimulus-combination rule in impression formation. (1965)Averaging versus adding as a …THE PERCEPTION OF PEOPLE (1954)THE PERCEPTION OF PEOPLEUsing conventional framing to offset bias against algorithmic errors (2025)Using conventional framing to…Promote Internally or Hire Externally? The Role of Gift Exchange and Performance Measurement Precision (2023)Promote Internally or Hire Ex…Inflated Reputations: Uncertainty, Leniency, and Moral Wiggle Room in Trader Feedback Systems (2019)Inflated Reputations: Uncerta…Prompting the Benefit of the Doubt: The Joint Effect of Auditor‐Client Social Bonds and Measurement Uncertainty on Audit Adjustments (2017)Prompting the Benefit of the …Heuristics and stock buying decision: Evidence from Malaysian and Pakistani stock markets (2017)Heuristics and stock buying d…Do Earnings Estimates Add Value to Sell-Side Analysts’ Investment Recommendations? (2016)Do Earnings Estimates Add Val…Investor’s Dilemma: Fundamentals or Biasness in Investment Decision (2011)Investor’s Dilemma: Fundament…Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment (2010)Predicting the Next Big Thing…Use of heuristics: Insights from forecasting research (2006)Use of heuristics: Insights f…Does involvement moderate time-dependent biases in consumer multiattribute judgment? (1998)Does involvement moderate tim…Configurality in judgment: Is it a bias? (1997)Configurality in judgment: Is…Do Consumers Overgeneralize One-Sided Comparative Price Claims, and Are More Stringent Regulations Needed? (1996)Do Consumers Overgeneralize O…Time dependent biases in consumer multi-attribute judgment (1995)Time dependent biases in cons…Theory and configurality in expert and layperson judgment. (1994)Theory and configurality in e…Inconsistency and uncertainty in multi‐attribute judgment of human performance (1994)Inconsistency and uncertainty…Why Teach Thinking?‐An Essay (1993)Why Teach Thinking?‐An EssayA Theory of Social Comparison Processes (1954)The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)Cognitive, social, and physiological determinants of emotional state. (1962)Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction? (1975)The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes (1977)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The extended contact effect: Knowledge of cross-group friendships and prejudice. (1997)The Career of Metaphor. (2005)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. (1955)The Measurement of Meaning (1957)Primacy effects in personality impression formation using a generalized order effect paradigm. (1965)The Minimal Group Paradigm: Theoretical Explanations and Empirical Findings (1990)The Psychology of Group Conflict and the Dynamics of Oppression (1993)Show me your friends and I will tell you what type of person you are: How one's profile, number of friends, and type of friends influence impression formation on social network sites (2010)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and User Acceptance of Information Technology (1989)Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation (1990)A Comparison of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Theory of Reasoned Action (1992)Emotional Labor in Service Roles: The Influence of Identity (1993)HARKing: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known (1998)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Unrealistic optimism about future life events. 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References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
  • 1973The processes of causal attribution.4,031 cited
  • 1987Attribution: Perceiving the Causes of Behavior3,713 cited
  • 1988Organizational behavior and human decision processes1,753 cited
  • 1983The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.811 cited
  • 1982Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty613 cited
  • 1965Averaging versus adding as a stimulus-combination rule in impression formation.580 cited
  • 1954THE PERCEPTION OF PEOPLE577 cited
  • 1969The pollyanna hypothesis548 cited
  • 1977Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.503 cited
  • 1987Negativity in evaluations.468 cited
  • 1980The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person185 cited
  • 1979Subjective sensitivity analysis

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181 cited

Cited by

  • 1993Why Teach Thinking?‐An Essay169 cited
  • 2010Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment77 cited
  • 2006Use of heuristics: Insights from forecasting research73 cited
  • 2017Heuristics and stock buying decision: Evidence from Malaysian and Pakistani stock markets70 cited
  • 2016Do Earnings Estimates Add Value to Sell-Side Analysts’ Investment Recommendations?68 cited
  • 2017Prompting the Benefit of the Doubt: The Joint Effect of Auditor‐Client Social Bonds and Measurement Uncertainty on Audit Adjustments57 cited
  • 1996Do Consumers Overgeneralize One-Sided Comparative Price Claims, and Are More Stringent Regulations Needed?46 cited
  • 2019Inflated Reputations: Uncertainty, Leniency, and Moral Wiggle Room in Trader Feedback Systems27 cited
  • 2023Promote Internally or Hire Externally? The Role of Gift Exchange and Performance Measurement Precision25 cited
  • 1994Theory and configurality in expert and layperson judgment.24 cited
  • 1998Does involvement moderate time-dependent biases in consumer multiattribute judgment?15 cited
  • 1994Inconsistency and uncertainty in multi‐attribute judgment of human performance13 cited
  • 1995Time dependent biases in consumer multi-attribute judgment7 cited
  • 1997Configurality in judgment: Is it a bias?4 cited
  • 2011Investor’s Dilemma: Fundamentals or Biasness in Investment Decision4 cited
  • 2025Using conventional framing to offset bias against algorithmic errors3 cited