An Application of Hierarchical Structure Model for Trip Mode Choice Forecasting in China

Abstract

Trip mode split is the result of interrelated and mutually independent factors, such as city scale, urban form, economic level, trip distance, and travel time. In order to analyze the formation of traffic structure, it is necessary to make a comprehensive study on the mechanism of these factors and obtain the basic causal relationship of them. Based on this, by using the hierarchical structure model in system engineering, this paper firstly clarifies the logical relationship of different factors. Then, the existing trip survey data of several cities is used to establish the mathematical relationship of various factors of the structure model. Finally, the mode choice forecasting method is proposed based on the structure model of influencing factors. The case study result of six cities shows small bias, indicating that the proposed method is of great practical value. Policy makers can use the results to discover the trip structure feature and grasp the direction of transportation development policy.

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