Modelling the impacts of ATIS accuracy on travellers' route-choice behaviour and risk perception

Abstract

ATIS (Advanced travel information systems) are designed to assist travellers in making sound choices by providing pre-trip and en-route travel information such as travel times on the relevant alternatives and thus reducing uncertainty. However, it is highly likely that travellers‟ choices could well be sensitive to the accuracy of the provided information which can be regarded as an additional source of uncertainty. To investigate this further, a route-choice experiment with repetitions was conducted on an existing simulation platform with three different levels of information accuracy. The information consisted of the estimated travel times on three routes (descriptive), the suggested route (prescriptive) and post choice actual travel times on all routes as feedback information for the choice of the next repetition. Aggregate analysis using non-parametric statistics suggests decreasing accuracy is associated with decrease in compliance with the prescriptive information and shifting of choices from the short and risky route to the more reliable routes. At the lowest accuracy level choices seem to resemble a random distribution. Further disaggregate analysis using a mixed logit based choice model confirms this behaviour and that responses are more sensitive to estimated travel times than to actual ones. Risk attitudes also seem to play a role in choice behaviour. The implications for future ATIS design and further research are also discussed.

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