Effects of Graphic and Verbal Probability Information on Command Decision Making

Abstract

The performance effects of graphic and verbal representations of uncertainty were investigated within the context of a spatial problem., Sixteen experienced naval submarine officers acted as decision makers (i.e., submarine commanders) in eight simulated scenarios. Four scenario problems were presented with either a verbal or a graphic representation of uncertainty. The degree of uncertainty was controlled by manipulating oceanic conditions and information modeling. The graphic representation of uncertainty resulted in superior range estimates only when the oceanic noise was high and the environmental information was properly modeled. No reliable differences in confidence were observed. These results suggest that for spatial problems, a graphic/spatial representation of uncertainty may considerably improve the judgments of decision makers.

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