Certain and Uncertain Utility: The Allais Paradox and Five Decision Theory Phenomena

Abstract

In the study of decision making under risk, preferences are assumed to be continuous. We present a model of discontinuous preferences over certain and uncertain outcomes. Using existing parameter estimates for certain and uncertain utility, five important decision theory phenomena are discussed: the certainty effect, experimentally observed probability weighting, the uncertainty effect, extreme experimental risk aversion and quasi-hyperbolic discounting. All five phenomena can be resolved.

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