Exchange rate variability and trade: why is it so difficult to find any empirical relationship?

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

161 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Global trade and economics Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

This paper discusses why previous literature has found little evidence of any effect of exchange rate variability on international trade. Methodological and statistical issues are discussed. In particular, comparisons are made of estimations based on different specifications or using different data sets and changes in the results depending on the method used are shown.

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References

2017Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade 1978The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade 1978Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, Not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England 1988Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect 1979Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market 1986Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-Term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates 2000Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England 1985Chapter 20 Income and price effects in foreign trade

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2008Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment 1998The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows 2003Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports 2018Effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in Sub-Saharan Africa☆1997Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of Foreign Trade: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries

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