Hindsight Distortion: “I knew‐it‐all along and I was sure about it”1

Nicolaos E. Synodinos

46 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Applied Social Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Social and Intergroup Psychology Memory Processes and Influences

Abstract

Hindsight distortion was examined in the context of the 1982 Hawaiian gubernatorial election by obtaining estimates from 474 persons either prior or after the election. Two motivational factors (global self‐esteem and political involvement) were also measured. Despite the accuracy of subjects in foresight, hindsight distortion was demonstrated. The most pronounced effect was exhibited in the subjects' degree of confidence which was significantly (p < .0001) higher in hindsight than in foresight. There was no mediation by global self‐esteem or by political involvement. The findings support that hindsight distortion occurs because of biases in information processing, rather than through mediation by motivational factors.

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References

2002Resilience in the Face of Catastrophe: Optimism, Personality, and Coping in the Kosovo Crisis 1975Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.1970Toward an hypothesis of work behavior.1975I knew it would happen 1976Self-esteem : its conceptualization and measurement 1982Debiasing 1977On the psychology of experimental surprises.1982Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election

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1990Second‐Guessing the Jury: Stereotypic and Hindsight Biases in Perceptions of Court Cases1 2002Hindsight bias in economic expectations: I knew all along what I want to hear.1990Hindsight Bias: Self‐Flattery or Cognitive Error?1998The Effects of Feedback Source and Plausibility of Hindsight Bias 1998Decomposing Hindsight Bias 2003Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility

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