Forecasts and outcomes

Abstract

The forecasts used by planners often overstate the outcomes that are eventually observed. Many forecasts prepared for planning purposes project changes that turn out to have been exaggerations of the changes that actually take place. This article explores some of the reasons forecasts of social changes may overstate the eventual outcomes and considers the role of interests as well as some of the technical factors that may encourage exaggeration and overstatement. The nature of the models often used as a basis for preparing forecasts may lead to the overstatements of impacts. The article concludes by recognizing the homeostatic nature of the forces that forge city structures and presents some implications regarding power relations and ethics.

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