New Measures of the Propensity to Strike during Contract Negotiations, 1971-1980

Abstract

This paper presents new measures—by month, industry, and union—of the percentage of labor contract negotiations in the United States that result in a strike. The measures are derived from a single, comprehensive sample of 6,046 contract negotiations occurring in 1971–80 in bargaining units of 1,000 or more workers. These data are superior to those used in previous studies because they measure strike probabilities (or propensities) directly rather than by proxy. The data show that strikes occurred in 13.25 percent of all negotiations analyzed, but this strike rate varied substantially across years, industries, and unions.

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