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An investigation of the relations among probability estimates
4 references·16 citing·39 second hop
An investigation of the relations among probability estimates (1976)An investigation of the relations among p…Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Conservatism in human informa…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Man as an intuitive statistic…Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives (2002)Understanding Misunderstandin…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should” (2002)Self-Anchoring in Conversatio…Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Realit…Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem (2002)Mental Contamination and the …Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning (2002)Extensional versus Intuitive …Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting (2002)Durability Bias in Affective …Do Analysts Overreact? (2002)Do Analysts Overreact?Automated Choice Heuristics (2002)Automated Choice HeuristicsThe conjunction fallacy: A test of averaging hypotheses (1997)The conjunction fallacy: A te…Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions. (1995)Resistance of personal risk p…Peer evaluation in self-managing work groups. (1993)Peer evaluation in self-manag…Accounting for decisions and decisions for accounting (1993)Accounting for decisions and …Representativeness and conjoint probability. (1991)Representativeness and conjoi…Conjunction errors: Evidence for multiple judgment procedures, including “signed summation” (1986)Conjunction errors: Evidence …Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context (1978)Assessing probabilities of co…Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)The influence of inhibitory processes on affective theory of mind in young and old adults (2013)Understanding and combating misperceived polarization (2021)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The theory of decision making. (1954)Applied Statistical Decision Theory (1962)Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)The processes of causal attribution. (1973)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)Judged frequency of lethal events. (1978)A Theory of Social Comparison Processes (1954)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Effects of Peer Feedback on Team Member Behavior (1997)THE IMPACT OF COLLECTIVISM AND IN-GROUP/OUT-GROUP MEMBERSHIP ON THE EVALUATION GENEROSITY OF TEAM MEMBERS. (2000)Intragroup interdependence and effectiveness (2002)A power primer. (1992)(The Lack of) Optimistic Biases in Response to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake: The Role of Personal Experience (1999)Behavioral Law and Economics (2007)Distinct oxytocin effects on belief updating in response to desirable and undesirable feedback (2016)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Chapter 1 The Introspection Illusion (2009)Chapter 4 Shallow Cues With Deep Effects: Trait Judgments From Faces and Voting Decisions (2009)Critical Thinking Education and Debiasing (AILACT Essay Prize Winner 2013) (2014)The Two Forms of Belief in a Just World (1998)Revisiting positionality and the thesis of situated knowledge (2019)The Oxford Handbook of Experimental Semantics and Pragmatics (2019)Everyday magical powers: The role of apparent mental causation in the overestimation of personal influence. (2006)Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions (2009)What's in a Term? Paranormal, Superstitious, Magical and Supernatural Beliefs by Any Other Name Would Mean the Same (2012)A model of investor sentiment /A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)
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References

  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1982Conservatism in human information processing1,004 cited
  • 1967Man as an intuitive statistician.966 cited

Cited by

  • 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives289 cited
  • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
  • 1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.166 cited
  • 2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem160 cited
  • 1993Peer evaluation in self-managing work groups.135 cited
  • 2002Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives119 cited
  • 2002Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning106 cited
  • 1986Conjunction errors: Evidence for multiple judgment procedures, including “signed summation”103 cited
  • 2002Automated Choice Heuristics101 cited
  • 1991Representativeness and conjoint probability.95 cited
  • 2002Do Analysts Overreact?82 cited
  • 1997

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The conjunction fallacy: A test of averaging hypotheses
80 cited
  • 1978Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context72 cited
  • 2002Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”67 cited
  • 2002Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting66 cited
  • 1993Accounting for decisions and decisions for accounting65 cited