A methodology for estimating emergency evacuation times

Abstract

A methodology based on probabilistic mobilization time curves and pertinent evacuation network details is described for estimating the times required for the partial or total evacuation of an emergency planning zone (EPZ). Such an EPZ evacuation study is required by the U.S. Nuclear Regualatory Commission (NRC) for existing and proposed nuclear power operating plants. Inputs and outputs for the resulting computer model developed from the methodology are discussed for a nuclear power plant licensing application by Public Service Company of Oklahoma. With typical input conditions for the example under consideration, the computer model predicted an average total evacuation time of approximately two and a half hours, excluding notification and confirmation times.

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