An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution

Peter A. Morris

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making Probability and Statistical Research Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

This paper proposes a set of axioms for combining expert probability assessments. The axioms provide a framework for understanding previous results, and are used to derive a new method for combining event probabilities from different sources into a single estimate.

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1968The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions 1977Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach 1974Decision Analysis Expert Use 1964EXTERNALLY BAYESIAN GROUPS

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2009A Kullback-Leibler View of Linear and Log-Linear Pools 1995Coherent combination of experts' opinions 1985Combining Individual Judgments 2021A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods 1986Expert Resolution 1990Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters 1996Maximum Entropy Aggregation of Expert Predictions 1989Filtering information from human experts

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