Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis

Raphael H Amit · Ian H. Domowitz · Chaim Fershtman

77 citations0/0 files storedStrategic Management Journal

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Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence Business Strategies and Innovation Strategic Planning and Analysis

Abstract

Abstract An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.

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References

1980Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors 1978Strategy formulation : analytical concepts 1986Strategic groups: Theory, research and taxonomy 1987Strategic Group Formation and Performance: The Case of the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry, 1963–1982 1974Measurement of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly 1979Toward Strategic Intelligence Systems 1979Firm interdependence in oligopolistic markets 2023Strategic marketing management

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2011Rivalry within strategic groups and consequences for performance: the firm‐size effects 1996Perceiving competitive reactions: The value of accuracy (and paranoia)1995Operationalizing and testing Galbraith's center of gravity theory 1994Blinders, fuzzy lenses, and the wrong shoes: Pitfalls in competitive conjecture 2006Competitor‐focused accounting applied to a hotel context 2008Psychological and political influences on strategic decision making

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