Consistency and Validity Issues in Consumer Judgments

Abstract

Prior research has traced poor judgment quality to poor calibration. We suggest inconsistency to be another reason for poor judgment quality—utilizing different models on different occasions resulting in increased wandering in judgments. We demonstrate differing consistency in the utilization of models depending upon which variable is used as a cue and which is used as the criterion to be predicted. This results in differing correlations underlying judgments between the same two variables, an internally inconsistent pattern. We trace this to the utilization of lay causal models to make predictions but with the strength of the causal story moderating the consistency in use of the model.

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