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Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis
16 references·16 citing·34 second hopsampled
Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis (1991)Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the…Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information. (1988)Confidence, uncertainty, and …Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (1986)Judgment in Managerial Decisi…Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Decision analysis and behavio…An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions (1986)An Anchoring and Adjustment M…Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. (1985)Counterfactual reasoning and …Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. (1985)Ambiguity and uncertainty in …Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)A progress report on the trai…Training for calibration (1980)Training for calibrationCombining results of independent studies. (1978)Combining results of independ…Behavioral Decision Theory (1977)Behavioral Decision TheoryKnowledge and Cognition (1975)Knowledge and CognitionJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them (2019)Expert biases in technology f…Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective (2016)Biases in future-oriented Del…The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns (2012)The Role of Anchoring Bias in…The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments (2009)The relative influence of adv…The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. (2007)The naïve intuitive statistic…When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism (2002)When Predictions Fail: The Di…The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information (2002)The Availability Heuristic Re…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Realit…Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem (2002)Mental Contamination and the …Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions (2002)Inside the Planning Fallacy: …Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? (2002)Individual Differences in Rea…Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation…Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. (1999)Format dependence in subjecti…Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions. (1995)Resistance of personal risk p…How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. (1993)How alike is it versus how li…The Principles of Psychology (1891)The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism (1970)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. (2009)The theory of decision making. (1954)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method (2014)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Experimental designs, 2nd ed. (1957)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Approach and avoidance achievement goals and intrinsic motivation: A mediational analysis. (1996)The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis (1999)THE EMPIRICAL STATUS OF GOTTFREDSON AND HIRSCHI'S GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME: A META‐ANALYSIS (2000)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Toward a positive theory of consumer choice (1980)Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises (1998)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)
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References

  • 1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 1986Decision analysis and behavioral research3,035 cited
  • 1986Judgment in Managerial Decision Making2,254 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1977Behavioral Decision Theory1,731 cited
  • 1978Combining results of independent studies.910 cited
  • 1982A progress report on the training of probability assessors859 cited
  • 1985Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.817 cited
  • 1975Knowledge and Cognition475 cited
  • 1985Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.430 cited
  • 1980Training for calibration382 cited
  • 1986An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions292 cited
  • 1988Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.

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279 cited

Cited by

  • 2002Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability678 cited
  • 2009The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments341 cited
  • 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives289 cited
  • 2016Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective220 cited
  • 2012The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns214 cited
  • 2002The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information212 cited
  • 2002When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism209 cited
  • 2007The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.209 cited
  • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
  • 1993How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.188 cited
  • 1999Format dependence in subjective probability calibration.177 cited
  • 2002Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?166 cited
  • 2002Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions166 cited
  • 1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.166 cited
  • 2019Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them162 cited
  • 2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem160 cited